No, the Iran War Is Not About Trump Incompetence
It's not even about incontinence — it's about clinical insanity and why he needs to be removed from office
The man whose brain is wired by twigs and old Epstein footage of underage girls is clinically insane. Everyone who writes about Trump and doesn’t begin their “analysis” of what he does without saying that first is just wasting your reading time.
His war on Iran is a classic example of the problem. Writer after writer, including those in our echo chamber of Trump rage, keep attacking the problem as though it is something to be analyzed strategically.
“He was taken by surprise!” by how Iran has fought back, everyone says.
Nobody knows what he was thinking because he doesn’t really “think” in the way we are familiar with.
But one thing is certain: His bootlicking minions could not have been surprised. This puts them at fault for this fiasco almost more than it puts him at fault, because he’s gone. His mind is nothing more than a festering mold of grievance these days. There is no logical thought pattern left.
The depth of Iran’s likely resistance has been public knowledge for decades
Iranian military capabilities and strategic thinking are not some secret affair hidden in the desk drawers of a few CIA operatives. They’ve been public knowledge for decades. This knowledge is in world almanacs and in hundreds of news stories that have provided information on Iran for more than 40 years.
They’re in Janes, the publicly available bible of the armaments industry. Janes maintains statistics on the military capabilities of almost every country on earth. They’ve been doing that for decades. Nothing Iran does now would be a surprise to anyone sitting at a Janes desk updating the newest information coming in.
The stats are available to everyone, but much of it is for a price. Did the trump regime stop paying for it? I suppose anything is possible, but the American professional class of officers would simply compensate by sneaking it into their budgets some other way. It’s too important to them. They all read Janes.1
Janes also regularly reports on what to most of us would be trivial details, like this headline from January 2025:2
Iranian military takes delivery of large number of UAVs
(UAVs are drones.)
From the Janes report:
One of the unidentified new OWA UAVs that was displayed when 1,000 UAVs were supposedly handed over to Iran’s regular military on 13 January. (IMA Media)
Iran’s regular military took delivery of 1,000 unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), the Iranian media reported on 13 January.
The television coverage of the handover ceremony showed dozens of UAVs lined up in hangars, most of which appeared to be the Arash, a long-range one-way attack (OWA) type, although there were also several Ababil-3, Karrar, Kaman-12, Mohajer-6, and a single Ababil-5, all of which are reusable types.
There were also at least six UAVs that could be identified as Kaman-19s, a type unveiled during an exercise held in October 2023, when it was reported to be a dedicated electronic warfare platform.
A previously unseen type of OWA UAV was also shown during the handover. It was not explicitly identified but Iranian television coverage reported that a type called the Muharram was included, saying it is designed to target air-defence radars. At least 16 were displayed, 10 of which were in racks with part of their wings removed for storage. The type’s delta wing is similar in shape to that of the Omid, which has been compared to the Israeli Harop, but its vertical stabilisers protrude below as well as above its wing and it has a smaller canard over its nose.
Major General Abdolrahim Mousavi, commander of the Islamic Republic of Iran Army, said the UAVs were due to be delivered in the Iranian year 1404, which begins on 20 March, but arrived six months ahead of schedule due to the hard work of the Ministry of Defence’s aviation industries.
Many of the United States military’s international armament assessments come from Janes. When you see graphics like this from American intelligence services, you can be sure much of the information comes from Janes:
That’s a chart of known Iranian missile types and quantities.
Even a complete idiot can look at the combination of the Janes news report I quoted and that graphic and declare unequivocally: “This is not Venezuela.” It’s not possible to review the publicly available information about Iran and not conclude that a few bombs were not going to result in regime change.
This is especially true because another important piece of information has also been widely available to the public for the past forty years or so: The Iranian leadership structure is layered in such a way that new leaders can step in very quickly for those who are killed. This has been true almost since the Islamic Revolution changed the government of Iran from a monarchy to a theocratic dictatorship.
The country is run like one big fat group of terrorist cells. The assumption among its leaders is that someone will try to kill them. They’ve figured out a way to deal with that small problem.
There’s no way American military leaders did not wargame out scenarios where Iran’s current response was not considered somewhat of a best-case scenario.
And yes, so far, the Iranian response is very nearly a best-case scenario, based on the kinds of stories I’ve read over the years about war games the American military has been playing over the last couple of decades.
The trump regime can’t claim ignorance
We know that the trump regime is aware of this kind of stuff because they knew enough about Iran’s maritime capabilities to take out a retrofitted tanker being used as, essentially, a drone aircraft carrier.
In the early days of the war, American aircraft sank the Shahid Bagheri, which had once been a 240-meter-long container ship built by South Korea’s Hyundai Heavy Industries.3
The Iranians converted the ship into a drone launch platform that could extend the reach of its drones and give them mobile capabilities. It had a nautical range of 22,000 miles and could theoretically stay afloat for a year without refueling.
Its drone (UAV) weaponry featured the JAS-313, which was an unmanned version of its Qaher 313 fighter, which never became combat-ready enough for deployment against American or Israeli jets, but was good enough as a UAV.
The ship also carried the Mohajer-6, with a range of 200 miles. Military analysts assume but have been unable to verify that the ship contained the well-known Shahed-136, which has a range of up to 2,500 kilometers and has been battle-tested by the Russians in the Ukraine war.
The ship also carried helicopters so that a human element could be added for things like search and rescue and reconnaissance operations.
When the American military took out the ship, Defense Secretary and perpetually drunk Pete KegsBreath probably burst into Herr TrumpEpshTeen’s lair and burped out, “We just took out their entire navy!!!!!!!!!!” That is likely when the orange slithereen proclaimed victory to a gullible American public and press.
Since the day that the ship was said to have sunk, evidence has been uncovered by military bloggers that the Shahid Bagheri limped away but is still operational. It will probably be back, as will knockoffs.
It’s also not the only amphibious assault ship Iran has. Another one, the Shahid Roudaki, caught the attention of American military planners in 2020 when it appeared at Bandar Abbas port near the Strait of Hormuz. The Shahid Roudaki is a converted transport ship with the same general kind of amphibious assault platform that the Shahid Roudaki is said to possess.
The fact that American intelligence services knew about the Shahid Bagheri and then attacked it is all the evidence you need to understand that American military planners have at least the same amount of intel I do.
Iran’s drone capabilities have been part of the public domain among defense analysts since at least 2019, when the U.S. military claimed it shot down an Iranian drone spying on a U.S. warship in the Strait of Hormuz.4
Consider this quote from a 2019 article in The National Interest:5
In March 2019, Iran’s defense ministry launched a massive drone drill which involved flying more than fifty drones simultaneously, including Iranian versions of the U.S. RQ-170 Sentinel stealth drone and the American MQ-1 Predator. Commenting on the drill, Brigadier General Amir Ali Hajizadeh, the commander of the IRGC’s Aerospace Division, said the presence of squadrons of drones in the airspace of a small area heralds “the rise of new air power in Iran.”
The article continues:
In one of its latest statements, Rear Admiral Hossein Khanzadi, the head of Iran’s navy, claims that Iran’s drones are watching every U.S. ship in the region, adding “Our drones have significant ranges and have no limitations in communication links. We have a complete archive of images of American vessels approaching from very far distances … an immense archive of the day to day and even moment to moment movements of American forces, whether in the Persian Gulf or Oman sea.” Such statements suggest that Tehran had been able to overcome one of the problems regarding communications infrastructure, however, it is believed that the challenges to the national drone program are still the same with the exception that drones are becoming more integrated in the country’s military doctrine to carry out offensive attacks.
Did I mention that this was written in 2019?
Yesterday, US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Dan Caine announced that the A-10 Thunderbolt II, known affectionately by its pilots as the Warthog, has begun to strafe speed boats in the Strait of Hormuz to try to unclog the sealanes there, which have been shut down by Iranians through a combination of mines and small boats with fast-attack-and-run capabilities.
If you know anything about the A-10, you know that even speed boats won’t have much of a chance of escaping the wrath of rampaging Warthogs.
Everyone knows this, including Iranians.
Here’s another thing everyone knows: During the Iraq-Iran war, when Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein thought it was a good idea to invade a large, powerful mountainous country, the Iranians used a large part of its teenage population as cannon fodder. They sacrificed thousands of their children in waves of poorly equipped front-line troops to halt the Iraqi invasion.
Janes will tell you that Iran has more speed boats than A-10s can kill. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which runs Iranian naval operations, won’t hesitate to use young cannon fodder in the Strait. That’s their game. The Revolutionary Guard just killed tens of thousands of Iranian protesters. They don’t think the same way as you or I do.
Swarms of speed boats to harass shipping in the Strait were at one time considered one of the top likely Iranian military strategies, but so far, it appears that drones have become the drug of choice.
The possibility of those swarms of speed boats is also in the public domain. They’ve been gamed out for years. General Caine’s announcement of A-10 deployments suggests that the Iranians have begun to use them.
Another thing that is in the public domain is Iran’s resiliency and willingness to absorb abysmal attrition rates. The Republican Guard leadership doesn’t care at all how many young Iranians die to preserve their theocratic dictatorship. 100,000? Fine. 200,000? Also fine. 300,000? Whatever it takes.
Again. Well known. In the public knowledge database. Not a secret. They’ll sacrifice 1,000 boats and their personnel if it means taking out one important American naval vessel.
Kharg Island, here we come!
Axios is reporting that the trump regime might be targeting Kharg Island with ground troops.6 Kharg Island is a small strip of land in the Persian Gulf off the coast of Iran with a lot of stuff that looks like this:
The trump regime has already made it clear they’re sending 2500 of its best Marines into the middle of the warzone. Oorah.
The Iranians will be ready for them. Its people won’t, but they don’t need to be. Iran is like one massive prison, not too different than North Korea. Its youth will be collected and sent to the fighting, wherever it is, and sacrificed to Allah.
This is public knowledge. This information about Iranian strategy is not something hidden within a binder that says, “Top Secret” in a Mar-a-Lago bathroom.
Every military analyst in the world is aware of this strategy. The Iranians have already implemented it once. They’re perfectly content to try it again.
If the Marines kill 30,000 Iranian kids, the Revolutionary Guard will shrug their shoulders and send 30,000 more.
Even a completely soused Pete KegsBreath knows this, but he’s asking for $200 billion more anyway. He’ll probably get it from the bootlicking congress critters now polluting the Capitol Building.
Every Republican will vote to approve the funding, along with John Fetterman, whose stroke apparently did a lot more damage than mine did. Better him than me, to be honest, but I’m sorry y’all are suffering for it.
We have an unwell president.
It sucks that we have to take him seriously after KegsBreath stumbles into his lair to tell him about places like Kharg Island, and the orange maestro of madness blathers to the press things like:
“We can take out the island anytime we want. I call it the little island that sits there so totally unprotected. We’ve taken out everything but the pipes. We left the pipes because to rebuild the pipes would take years for them.”
The madman, when he said this on Thursday, made no mention of the intricate nature of the infrastructure of liquid natural gas facilities like the kind Iran bombed in Qatar that will take years to rebuild.
We don’t even know if he was given any detailed information about the attacks on the gas facilities. Who would tell him? Hannity?
Now he’s talking about seizing Kharg Island, because he thinks that it’s the beating heart of Iran’s economy. After all, that’s what Fox News, through KegsBreath, has told him.
If he takes Kharg, Iran will simply “turn off the spigot.” Not my words. Those are the words of Retired Rear Admiral Mark Montgomery, who told Axios that an attempt to seize Kharg Island “could expose U.S. troops to an unnecessary degree of risk given the uncertain upside.”7
That’s a polite way of telling the lunatic to grab his white golf cap and get ready for more soldiers in body bags.
Kharg is mostly a storage facility. It consists of massive storage tank farms with a cumulative storage capacity of about 30 million barrels of oil. The trump regime will probably destroy these facilities if it can’t seize them or decides not to try.
Why? Who knows? Don’t analyze a crazy man. This is where most writers who cover Trump fail us. There is no analyzing him. He’s completely bonkers. You can’t read his Truth Social posts and come up with a different conclusion. He is: Bat. Shit. Crazy.
He may have once been lucid. I don’t know. You tell me if you’ve been following him for a long time. But he isn’t now. And that’s all I care about.
So when we hear about him muttering and spluttering about Kharg Island, it’s important to understand that a certifiable lunatic is considering an ad hoc, poorly planned attack on an island that the Iranians have been preparing to defend for more than forty years.
A 2021 story in Janes, read by every military analyst in the American armed forces, reflects on what an invading force, probably led by the same small aircraft carrier that knocked an Iranian drone out of the sky in 2019, the USS Boxer, will face.
Thousands of these things:
These are fast-attack speed boats designed to swarm and overwhelm larger ships. The Janes article mentions the IRGC taking delivery of 110 such attack boats.8
But that’s just one delivery. Janes estimates the Iranians now have about 3000 of these things, as well as an unknown number of unmanned maritime drones of the type Ukraine has used effectively against the Russian Navy.
More publicly available knowledge about possible Iranian strategic thinking: The Iranian military leadership almost relishes an opportunity to try mixing manned attack boats with unmanned attack boats (maritime drones) to see if they can overwhelm an important American naval ship like the USS Boxer.
I’ve mentioned the USS Boxer a few of times in this article. It’s an 844-foot amphibious assault boat, a mini-aircraft carrier, really, that can carry about 2070 troops, which means KegsBreath will probably try to stuff 2500 Marines into it because he drinks a lot.
The trump regime’s newish Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Dan Caine, is a servile, but hawkish, gung-ho trumpster from the bowels up, so he’s eager to test the waters with some new toys that the craft will probably bring to the fray.
He also has close ties to the oligarchy. He recently joined venture capital firm Shield Capital and is a partner at Ribbit Capital. His U.S. Air Force biography describes him as “serial entrepreneur and investor.” He also loves to bomb the shit out of people and things.
Loves it.
He’s Commander Tarkin, lording over his Death Star:
He’s one of those dangerous kinds of people who pulls up a chair close to the 1200-inch high definition monitors that receive coverage of the various air assaults the madman orders, unable to prevent drool from spilling onto his medals as he jumps for joy while watching high-def industrial carnage.
I can’t blame him completely. Given a different career path and maybe a love for video games like Command & Conquer and Call of Duty, I might, too.
There’s no indication so far that he has thought any of this through any more than his boss, the drunken Defense Secretary. Don’t even bother with their boss, who has almost no awareness of what is going on and whose top highlight reel during his second term in office thus far is the dark comedy of his recent Pearl Harbor joke.
To repeat: The strategies being considered by Iran are all public knowledge. Military blogs are filled with them, and more. Every option is in front of American military planners, yet we keep hearing that they’re surprised by things Iran is doing.
This is as implausible as Herr TrumpEpshTeen’s innocence in the billion-dollar Epstein child trafficking ring, a lurid, reprehensible affair in which a young girl barely past the Barbie bending age allegedly took a chomp out of his penis when he forced himself on her.
When that is the background of your life, it tracks that when you finally hit the dementia stage of your sunset years, you come off as someone loonier than a hippo stuck in the same cage for a few decades.
Everything he does needs to be looked at with that in mind. Writers should consider themselves obligated to mention his insanity at the top of every story about him.
No analysis is possible. He’s crazy. Full stop.
As this war proceeds, we will keep reading stories about his incompetence. But that’s not what this is. The war is about a broken, insane man desperate to avoid the fallout from the Epstein files. Analysis is futile.
This means that the responsibility for what happens moving forward falls on people like the gung-ho Dan Craine. It falls on Congress, which should remove him from office. It even falls on the dog-like, feral JD Vance, who is said to oppose the war but doesn’t have the guts to take on a madman via the 25th Amendment.
We’re only in the early stages of this war, and I haven’t even mentioned the cyberwar that is likely to open up.
Iran’s cyberwar capabilities are also in the public domain
Iran’s cyberwar capabilities are well known to military analysts. Soon, they’ll be well known to you, too. Just today, officials in Foster City, California, announced that a cyberattack “has paralyzed its government and potentially compromised public data.”9 City officials declared an emergency.
Iran? Who knows? But it’s the kind of thing military analysts expect as the war continues.
Will writers covering the trump regime say that the trumpanzees were caught off guard when the first debilitating cyber attack strikes America?
Or when terrorist cells loyal to Iran smack an American city with swarms of armed drones?
Or will they finally acknowledge that the reason for this crisis, and every crisis the trump regime has introduced since it violated the White House, is the result of a man who should be in a straitjacket?
Thanks for reading!
If you enjoyed this (but kind of hated it, too), please restack! Thanks!
Footnotes
Default. “Janes | Open Source Defence and Security Intelligence,” 2024. https://www.janes.com/.
Default. “Iranian Military Takes Delivery of Large Number of UAVs,” January 14, 2025. https://www.janes.com/osint-insights/defence-news/air/iranian-military-takes-delivery-of-large-number-of-uavs.
Laird, Robbin. “The IRIS Shahid Bagheri: Iran’s Mobile Drone Carrier and Its Strategic Significance - Second Line of Defense.” Second Line of Defense, March 12, 2026. https://sldinfo.com/2026/03/the-iris-shahid-bagheri-irans-mobile-drone-carrier-and-its-strategic-significance/.
Bakir, Ali. “Iran’s Drones: A Big Threat to the U.S. Military in a War?” The National Interest, September 15, 2019. https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/irans-drones-big-threat-us-military-war-80796.
The National Interest, September 15, 2019; ibid
Ravid, Barak, and Marc Caputo. “Trump Mulls Risky Kharg Island Takeover to Force Iran to Open Strait.” Axios, March 20, 2026. https://www.axios.com/2026/03/20/iran-invasion-kharg-island-strait-hormuz.
Axios; ibid
Binnie, Jeremy. “IRGC Navy Receives Another Batch of Attack Boats,” December 14, 2021. https://www.janes.com/osint-insights/defence-news/sea/irgc-navy-receives-another-batch-of-attack-boats.
Mohney, Gillian. “Bay Area City Paralyzed by Cyberattack.” SFGATE, March 20, 2026. https://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/bay-area-cyberattack-22087396.php
Yes, he's crazy. He'll never become sane. it's over for him. Non compos mentis. Around the bend. Nuts. Cuckoo for cocoa puffs. Gone with the wind.
Meanwhile, "They sacrificed thousands of their children in waves of poorly equipped front-line troops to halt the Iraqi invasion." etc in re: sacrificing as many kids as it takes.
How about this - let the kids live their lives and send the old warmongers off to fight the battles. The world wouldn't mourn the sacrificing of 300,000 instigators of wars. Obviously, they have no regard for youth so send those with blood lust off to die. I won't mind that, at all.
As a matter of fact, send off everyone who thinks war is a good idea and leave the rest of us alone to get on with life. It's already enough of a challenge.
I'm a bit unclear how exactly trump plans to "take" Kharg island. It is north of the Strait, so some ship is going to have to get TO the Strait to offload boots to the ground. (I suppose they could walk up the coast and then swim over?) But is it feasible to get an American war ship through the Strait? I suppose the "boots" could parachute in and "take" the island but apparently Iran has other ports it can use and would just divert what it produces to there. So the boots would just sit there admiring the ground. Perhaps Hegseth could parachute down and they could all pray.